After Black Sea Grain Deal Extension, July Expiration Set to Collide with Critical Harvest Season in Ukraine

Following the 60-day renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative just ahead of its expiration on May 18, Mercy Corps warns that the deal’s new expiration in July will take place just as key harvests begin in Ukraine - severely threatening Ukrainian agriculture and export markets should the initiative disintegrate or should continued challenges in implementation persist.

The food security of millions around the world and the livelihoods of Ukrainian farmers once again hang in the balance while diplomats wrangle over technical details. Key governments and the UN must urgently press forward to secure an indefinite extension of the deal and ensure its effective implementation. In May 2023, Ukrainian grain exports dropped by 46% due to obstacles implementing the current deal, including inspection delays and blocked ships, demonstrating the significance of the initiative in maintaining Ukrainian agricultural exports as well as mitigating volatility in global food prices.

Mercy Corps Ukraine Response Director Cara Buck says: 

“We welcome the renewal of this critical initiative, but a new cliff looms: the deal will expire just as Ukrainian farmers start harvesting wheat in July. If currently stored grains cannot move to export and silos remain full, newly harvested wheat will rot. We urge all key governments to establish a tenable framework for the extension of the Black Sea grain deal once and for all. With each delay, each insinuation of ending the deal, the world and Ukrainian farmers hold their breaths. This deal is imperative to boost global food security, create stability in the market, and support the livelihoods of farmers in war-affected areas that are directly impacted by the Black Sea grain deal. 

“Beyond the global ramifications of this deal, the Black Sea grain deal is essential for the livelihoods of local farmers in war-affected regions of Ukraine - and in turn, the economic welfare of all civilians that rely on agriculture. 

“A new deal must include a commitment to long-term reconstruction, acknowledging critical infrastructure loss that has damaged international export capacity. An estimated 14.5% of Ukraine’s crop storage infrastructure has been destroyed during the war, possibly leading to the spoiling of over eight million tonnes of food exports.

“The deal’s expiration couldn’t come at a more critical time in the trajectory of today’s global food crisis: the recent 2023 Global Report on Food Crises revealed that 2022 was the fourth year in a row in which the number of people facing acute food insecurity increased, now up to 250 million people.”